Explainable Monte Carlo

How do the inputs map to the output?

Does what matters change across the output?

The four scenarios, from left to right: low price and high volume; low price and low volume; high price and low volume; high price and high volume. Cost is any value in all four.

Bars between the scenarios show how much each input matters in each part of the output, from left to right: Price 25, 70 and 25 percent; Volume 70, 25 and 70 percent; Cost 5, 5 and 5 percent.

An Excel add-in for Monte Carlo simulation that explains its results

Simulate your spreadsheet model

Uncertain inputs are ordinary cell formulas, such as =XMC.Triang(80, 100, 140). The workbook still works without the add-in, and it never leaves your computer.

See what drives the output

Simulation decomposition (SimDec) splits the outcome distribution into scenarios based on the most influential inputs, so you see which combinations of inputs produce each part of it.

See whether the drivers are stable

The heterogeneity index detects whether the drivers change across the model regions and regional sensitivity profiles show how exactly.

What is Explainable Monte Carlo? →

Join the waitlist

The beta version is now being tested in several pilots. Leave your email, and we'll write when it opens to more users.

Public release planned for spring 2027

Built on open research

The methods behind the add-in have been developed in peer-reviewed research since 2017. The research code is open source.

Book · open access

Sensitivity Analysis for Business, Technology, and Policymaking

Kozlova & Yeomans (eds.), Routledge, 2024

Read it free →
Code · open source

SimDec packages

GitHub: Python · R · MATLAB · Julia

Web app · free

SimDec dashboard

Run SimDec on your simulation data in the browser, no coding needed

simdec.io →
All resources and key papers →